Nigel Andrassey was an undergraduate, studying political science. He can frequently be found in the Coffee House, hiding behind a copy of the Aggie.

Winter 2006 Elections

For my own idle amusement I have created the following "horse race" style odds for the current ASUCD candidates. As of the first day of campaigning I estimate the odds as follows. Candidates are listed by initials, parties are in parenthesis (Lead, Focus, Indepentant and iGnite).

Executive Office: Lead (L) 18:7 (72%) Focus (F) 7:18 (28%)

Senate: NA (L) 2:1 (67%) DR (L) 2:1 (67%) MM (G) 3:2 (60%) KR (F) 14:11 (56%) RD (L) 7:8 (47%) MZ (L) 7:8 (47%) JR (I) 11:14 (44%) RN (I) 2:3 (40%) AV (I) 9:16 (36%) AB (L) 1:2 (33%) GA (F) 8:17 (32%) ML (I) 7:18 (28%) JB (L) 6:19 (24%) JL (G) 1:4 (20%)

The above are the odds updated as of midnight 02/23 / 02/24. "Double-dipping," ie competing for the same votes, caused several candidates to lose odds due to more highly favoured members of their own party.

Winter 2007 Elections LN (U) 5:3 (62.5%) UI (L) 6:5 (54.5%) ML (L) 6:5 (54.5%) CP (L) 6:5 (54.5%) PM (F) 3:5 (37.5%) LK (F) 3:5 (37.5%) BD (F) 3:5 (37.5%) FM (L) 3:8 (27.3%) ER (I) 3:8 (27.3%) AP (I) 3:8 (27.3%) MS (F) 1:3 (25%) GA (I) 3:13 (18.8%) MC (L) 2:9 (18.2%) IC (L) 2:9 (18.2%) TS (I) 2:9 (18.2%) CT (F) 1:7 (12.5%) JA (F) 1:7 (12.5%) JB (F) 1:7 (12.5%) GW (F) 1:7 (12.5%) RP (C) 1:7 (12.5%)

I think the number for Nevins (LN) came out a bit higher than I'd like, but I'm tired of tweaking it. In fact I'd predict her coming in sixth, but removing odds from her would add odds to everyone else so I'd have to do all the calculations over again. It should be noted though that the odds are NOT equivalent to number of votes, just odds of being in the top six, so one could say there is a 62.5% chance that LN will come in sixth. Also I have absolutely no idea really what to do with Ajlouny (GA) since no one has ever run for reelection before so there's no precedent. Anyway, here's the numbers.

Comments:

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2006-02-24 15:03:54   Your prediction was nearly perfect, in terms of the raw figures of who was elected (not by how much). Your only mistake was not predicting a win for GA! —PhilipNeustrom


2006-02-24 18:19:22   Yeah I predicted the wrong Focus member =( —NigelAndrassey


2006-02-24 18:36:51   You should have recorded it on a tape, put it in a lockbox and made a $1000 "bet" with entertainment tonight The California AggieArlenAbraham


2006-02-24 18:42:32   thats pretty amazing, I wish the elections results were posted right now so I could figure out how george did win... —JamesSchwab


2006-02-24 19:25:32   yeah where's the stovetop? —NigelAndrassey

Alex Park says it'll be up on Monday.


2007-01-23 16:00:31   Mr. Andrassey. Do you think you will publish predictions for the Winter 2007 ASUCD Election? —MaxMikalonis


2007-01-25 17:07:16   Yeah I'm up for it. Considering the large number of candidates, if anyone could help me compile information which might be relevant I'd appreciate it. Such information includes physical attractiveness of candidates, participation in influential organizations, etc. It does not include anything about their platforms incidently because that doesn't actually effect the vote =) —NigelAndrassey


2007-02-23 00:02:14   Woah.... I definitely think nevins is a bit higher, but then again, she was in my top 6, and I know a lot of people voted for her because, well, she's an actual human being. Definite Black horse..... This goes against everything I've been thinking about and following, esp. considering ER's campaign flyer was an endorsement of all the LEAD candidates. But hey, you've got the experience, and this could be Very Interesting. —MaxMikalonis


2007-02-23 00:05:13   Yeah I ran ER as a Lead extra. I'm assuming the various supernumerary candidates don't have particularly good odds since the rest of their teams aren't really pushing for them. Though she's still rated better than half of everyone else. Also if these are way off I'd like to disclaim that I'm way out of the loop these days. =) —NigelAndrassey


2007-02-23 00:08:33   Well, also, turnout for Unitrans broke 20%, but then a lot of people who voted for that didn't proceed to rank Senate/Prez, or only did their top vote, because (among other things) they weren't interested in reading candidate statements (sounds familiar) and didn't buy the sound bites. —MaxMikalonis